An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction
WANG Shi1,2, GAO Shan-hong1
1. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China;
2. Battlefield Environment Support Room of Command Support Group, PLA Naval Staff, Beijing 100161, China
摘要 基于Babin模型并分析了海上蒸发波导对气象输入参数的敏感性，引入数值天气预报中集合预报的思路，提出了一种新的蒸发波导诊断方法——集合诊断方法（Babin_Ens法）.运用它对中国近海4个岛屿站点的实测数据进行了波导诊断结果的对比验证，发现：与Babin模型（Babin法）相比，Babin_Ens法使波导高度与强度偏差的平均改进率分别达到了23.49%与19.29%.进一步尝试运用Babin_Ens法对WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式的预报信息进行了蒸发波导的数值预报，波导高度与强度预报偏差的平均改进率分别提高了14.01%和16.92%.研究表明，集合诊断可以显著地提高波导信息的诊断准确度，是一种改进蒸发波导诊断准确度的可行途径.
Abstract：Based on the Babin model and the sensitivity analysis of Evaporation duct on meteorological input parameters,a new diagnosis method——ensemble diagnosis (Babin_Ens) method——is proposed in this paper benefitting from the idea of weather ensemble prediction.By using this method,a comparison and analysis of the diagnosed result from the measurements on four island stations in the Chinese marginal seas is done.It is found that both root-mean-square error and bias of duct height and intensity for the Babin_Ens method are obviously improved compared to the Babin model,and the averaged bias improvements of duct height and intensity are 23.49% and 19.29% respectively.Numerical forecasts of evaporation duct are conducted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Babin_Ens method.The averaged bias improvement rates of duct height and intensity get improved respectively by 14.01% and 16.92%.It shows that the ensemble diagnosis method can greatly improve the diagnosis and prediction of evaporation duct.
王石, 高山红. 一种蒸发波导的集合诊断方法及其数值预报应用[J]. 电子学报, 2019, 47(5): 1049-1057.
WANG Shi, GAO Shan-hong. An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2019, 47(5): 1049-1057.
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2019, Vol. 47 
