Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime for the Airborne Electronic Equipment Based on the EM-EKF Algorithm and Hidden Degradation Model with the Proportion Relationship

doi:10.12263/DZXB.20200050

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ACTA ELECTRONICA SINICA ›› 2021, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3) : 500-509. DOI: 10.12263/DZXB.20200050

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Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime for the Airborne Electronic Equipment Based on the EM-EKF Algorithm and Hidden Degradation Model with the Proportion Relationship

CHENG Yun-xiang, WANG Ze-zhou, CAI Zhong-yi, XIANG Hua-chun, WANAG Li-li

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Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the existing adaptive prediction methods of remaining useful lifetime (RUL) for the airborne electronic equipment fail to comprehensively consider the hidden degradation modeling and online drift coefficients updating in the condition of newly researched and small sample, an adaptive prediction method for the airborne electronic equipment’s RUL based on the EM-EKF algorithm and hidden degradation model with proportion relationship is proposed. Firstly, based on the nonlinear Wiener process, a hidden degradation model with the proportion relationship is constructed. Next, the degradation state equation of the equipment is established based on the drift coefficient update mechanism, and the EKF algorithm is used to update the degradation status and drift coefficient. And then, the EM-EKF algorithm is used to adaptively estimate the parameters of the degradation model. Finally, based on the full probability formula, the probability density function (PDF) of RUL is derived. By analyzing the measured data of a single micromechanical gyroscope, it is verified that the proposed method has better model fitting and prediction accuracy.

Key words

remaining useful lifetime prediction / Wiener process / hidden degradation model / proportion relationship / EM-EKF algorithm

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CHENG Yun-xiang, WANG Ze-zhou, CAI Zhong-yi, XIANG Hua-chun, WANAG Li-li. Adaptive Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime for the Airborne Electronic Equipment Based on the EM-EKF Algorithm and Hidden Degradation Model with the Proportion Relationship[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2021, 49(3): 500-509. https://doi.org/10.12263/DZXB.20200050

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