Estimating Remaining Useful Life Under Uncertain Degradation Measurements

SI Xiao-sheng, HU Chang-hua, ZHANG Qi, HE Hua-feng, ZHOU Tao

ACTA ELECTRONICA SINICA ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1) : 30-35.

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ACTA ELECTRONICA SINICA ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1) : 30-35. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2015.01.006

Estimating Remaining Useful Life Under Uncertain Degradation Measurements

  • SI Xiao-sheng, HU Chang-hua, ZHANG Qi, HE Hua-feng, ZHOU Tao
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Abstract

Remaining useful lifetime (RUL) estimation is a key issue in prognosis and health management for industrial systems.Currently,the use of the observed degradation data of a system holds promise to estimate its RUL.Due to the effect of system's stochastic deterioration and uncertain measurements,the measured data are inevitably contaminated by the stochasticity of the degradation and measurement uncertainty.However,in current studies of the RUL estimation based on the measured data,there is no report considering the effect of the degradation stochasticity and measurement uncertainty on the estimated RUL distribution.In this paper,a new degradation modeling approach is proposed based on Wiener process,which considers system's stochastic deterioration and uncertain measurements simultaneously,and the Kalman filtering technique is utilized to estimate the underlying degradation state.On the basis of the estimated degradation state,the analytical RUL distribution is derived which accounts for the uncertainties in the estimated degradation state and measurements.Additionally,a parameter estimation method for the developed model is presented based on the maximum likelihood method.Finally,a case study for gyros verifies the proposed method and the results indicate that the proposed method is superior to the method without considering uncertain measurements and can improve the accuracy of the estimated RUL.

Key words

remaining useful life estimation / degradation model / uncertain measurements / Kalman filter

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SI Xiao-sheng, HU Chang-hua, ZHANG Qi, HE Hua-feng, ZHOU Tao . Estimating Remaining Useful Life Under Uncertain Degradation Measurements[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2015, 43(1): 30-35. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2015.01.006

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.61174030, No.61104223, No.61025014, No.61374126)
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