PENG Yu, LEI Miao, GUO Jia, et al. Mobile Communication Traffic Forecasting with Prior Knowledge[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2011, 39(1): 190-194.
DOI:
PENG Yu, LEI Miao, GUO Jia, et al. Mobile Communication Traffic Forecasting with Prior Knowledge[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2011, 39(1): 190-194.DOI:
Mobile Communication Traffic Forecasting with Prior Knowledge
This paper proposed a methodology of forecasting for mobile communication traffic with maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) according to priori knowledge.Fourier spectrum was chosen as the priori knowledge to avoid the blindness of wavelet decomposition.Then
MODWT which is easy to extract components with obvious physical meaning was employed to decompose the communication traffic data.Moreover
prior knowledge of fourier spectrum was taken as reference to synthesize relevant sublayers
leading to the trend and seasonal components.Further
seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to model and predict the previous trend and seasonal components
respectively.The results tested with real communication traffic data indicate:the methodology proposed in this paper can realize multistep prediction and the forecasting accuracy is superior to that of seasonal ARIMA models.