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北京特殊机电研究所
Published:1983
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[1]周源泉.确定电子产品MTBF增长的Bayes方法[J].电子学报,1983(02):40-44.
Zhou Yuan-quan. A Bayesian Approach to Determining MTBF Growth for Electronic Products[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 1983, (2): 40-44.
本文用Bayes方法估计经历研制试验的电子产品失效率(或MTBF)问题。进行了m组寿命试验
其失效率满足条件:λ
1
>
λ
2
>
…
>
λ
m
。感兴趣的参数是产品最后阶段的失效率λ
m
。在取没有验前知识的共轭型验前分布时
容易得到λ
m
的边缘验后概率密度函数。为了满足工程实践的需要
推导了近似解
并举例说明。
The Problem of estimating the failure rate (or MTBF) of an electronic product under development testing is considered from a Bayesian approach
m sets of life trials are performed under conditions which lead to an ordering of failure rates λ1>λ2>…> λm. The parameter of interest is Am. the final underlying failure rate of the product. The marginal posterior probability density function for Am is obtained when the conjugated type prior distribution without prior knowledge is assumed. An approximate solution is derived to meet the practical engineering needs
and the method is illustrated.
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