With the development of the research on Moving Target Defense (MTD) technique

how to effectively select the optimal strategy of moving target defense has become an urgent issue in the current research. To solve this problem

we propose a MTD optimal strategy selection method based on multi-stage Markov signaling game model. Firstly

combined with the actual attack-defense process

we construct an attack chain model that attackers need to build to carry out the attack. Secondly

due to the random jump between states

we combine multi-stage signaling with Markov Decision Process (MDP) to construct the corresponding MTD model. Meanwhile

we adopt Logistic mapping to characterize the stochastic interference factors that may cause the distortion of the probability updating in the attack-defense process. Additionally

on the basis of formally modeling

we design an objective function with discounted total payoff. Besides

we give a solution method for multi-stage signaling game equilibrium and design an optimal defense strategy selection algorithm for MTD. Finally

the simulation demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model and method.