Quantitative Analysis Method of Dynamic Fault Tree of Complex System Using Bayesian Network

FANG Bing-wu; HUANG Zhi-qiu; LI Yong; WANG Yong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2016.05.032

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Quantitative Analysis Method of Dynamic Fault Tree of Complex System Using Bayesian Network

更新时间：2025-07-16

- Quantitative Analysis Method of Dynamic Fault Tree of Complex System Using Bayesian Network
- Acta Electronica Sinica Vol. 44, Issue 5, Pages: 1234-1239(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南京航空航天大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏,南京,210016
  2. 安徽财贸职业学院电子信息系,安徽,合肥,230061
  3. 南京航空航天大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏,南京,210016
  4. 安徽财贸职业学院电子信息系,安徽,合肥,230061
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.61272083, No.61562087);Natural Science Fund of Education Department of Anhui Province (No.KJ2013B009, No.KJ2015A400)
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2016.05.032
  CLC： TP311
- Published Online：25 May 2016，
  
  Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
FANG Bing-wu, HUANG Zhi-qiu, LI Yong, et al. Quantitative Analysis Method of Dynamic Fault Tree of Complex System Using Bayesian Network[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2016, 44(5): 1234-1239.
DOI：

FANG Bing-wu, HUANG Zhi-qiu, LI Yong, et al. Quantitative Analysis Method of Dynamic Fault Tree of Complex System Using Bayesian Network[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2016, 44(5): 1234-1239. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2016.05.032.

摘要

动态故障树的贝叶斯网络分析方法存在局部组合爆炸和备件门节点失效时间仅能是指数分布的不足.首先

给出动态故障树转换为离散时间贝叶斯网络的方法

该方法使用一个确定性函数来替代条件概率表

避免了局部组合爆炸.然后

根据备件门的失效机理和对应的贝叶斯网络结构特征

解决了备件节点失效时间仅能是指数分布的限制.最后

提出一种基于动态故障树的贝叶斯网络精确推理算法

基于该算法给出了系统失效分布、组件重要度等概率计算.实验结果表明

该方法能有效地分析和评估安全攸关系统的概率特性.

Abstract

There exist limitations of local combinatorial explosion and only exponential distribution of spare nodes in Bayesian network(BN)-based dynamic fault tree(DFT) analysis method.First

an approach of mapping DFT into discrete-time BN is proposed in which a deterministic function instead of conditional probability tables is used to avoid local combinatorial explosion.Second

according to the failure mechanism and BN structure of spare door

we remove the limitation that the failure time of spare nodes in BN is only exponential distribution.Finally

an exact inference algorithm of DFT-based BN is presented and based on which the failure distribution of system and the importance measurement of components is calculated.Experimental results show that the proposed method can analyze and evaluate the probability characteristics of safety-critical systems effectively.

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