An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction

WANG Shi; GAO Shan-hong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2019.05.011

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An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction

更新时间：2025-07-16

- An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction
- Acta Electronica Sinica Vol. 47, Issue 5, Pages: 1049-1057(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东,青岛,266100
  2. 海参指挥保障大队战场环境保障室,北京,100161
  3. 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东,青岛,266100
  4. 海参指挥保障大队战场环境保障室,北京,100161
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2017YFC1404200)
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2019.05.011
  CLC： TN011.3P406
- Published Online：25 May 2019，
  
  Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
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WANG Shi, GAO Shan-hong. An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2019, 47(5): 1049-1057.
DOI：

WANG Shi, GAO Shan-hong. An Ensemble Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Duct and Its Application in Numerical Prediction[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2019, 47(5): 1049-1057. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2019.05.011.

摘要

基于Babin模型并分析了海上蒸发波导对气象输入参数的敏感性，引入数值天气预报中集合预报的思路，提出了一种新的蒸发波导诊断方法集合诊断方法（Babin_Ens法）.运用它对中国近海4个岛屿站点的实测数据进行了波导诊断结果的对比验证，发现：与Babin模型（Babin法）相比，Babin_Ens法使波导高度与强度偏差的平均改进率分别达到了23.49%与19.29%.进一步尝试运用Babin_Ens法对WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式的预报信息进行了蒸发波导的数值预报，波导高度与强度预报偏差的平均改进率分别提高了14.01%和16.92%.研究表明，集合诊断可以显著地提高波导信息的诊断准确度，是一种改进蒸发波导诊断准确度的可行途径.

Abstract

Based on the Babin model and the sensitivity analysis of Evaporation duct on meteorological input parameters

a new diagnosis methodensemble diagnosis (Babin_Ens) methodis proposed in this paper benefitting from the idea of weather ensemble prediction.By using this method

a comparison and analysis of the diagnosed result from the measurements on four island stations in the Chinese marginal seas is done.It is found that both root-mean-square error and bias of duct height and intensity for the Babin_Ens method are obviously improved compared to the Babin model

and the averaged bias improvements of duct height and intensity are 23.49% and 19.29% respectively.Numerical forecasts of evaporation duct are conducted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Babin_Ens method.The averaged bias improvement rates of duct height and intensity get improved respectively by 14.01% and 16.92%.It shows that the ensemble diagnosis method can greatly improve the diagnosis and prediction of evaporation duct.

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