哈尔滨工业大学自动化测试与控制系,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080
纸质出版:2006
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王军, 彭喜元, 彭宇. 一种新型复杂时间序列实时预测模型研究[J]. 电子学报, 2006,34(S1):2391-2394.
WANG Jun, PENG Xi-yuan, PENG Yu. A Novel Real Time Predictor for Complex Time Series[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2006, 34(S1): 2391-2394.
针对复杂时间序列难以使用单一预测方法进行有效预测的问题
本文提出一种新型多分辨率增量预测模型.该模型首先使用经验模式分解方法对复杂时间序列分解
然后对各分量分别进行增量核空间独立向量组合预测建模
最后对各个分量预测结果等权求和集成为综合预测结果.该预测模型可以实现对复杂时间序列的快速实时预测
实验结果显示该模型在复杂时间序列预测上有良好的性能.
The task of complex time series predicting is hard to be accomplished with only one single predicting model.In this paper
a novel multi-scale incremental predictor is proposed.This predictor decomposes the complex time series into a series of intrinsic mode functions(IMF) and a residual signal with empirical mode decompo sition firstly
and then an Incremental Independent Vector Combination Predicting algorithm in Kernel Space(ⅡVCPKS) is constructed for predicting every IMF or residual signal.The propo sed predictor is competent for predicting the complex time series in real time.Experimental results showed that the propo sed method performed very well in the task of predicting complex time series.
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