1. 哈尔滨工业大学自动化测试与控制研究所,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080
2. 中国移动黑龙江有限公司,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150028
3. 哈尔滨工业大学自动化测试与控制研究所黑龙江哈尔滨,150080
4. 中国移动黑龙江有限公司黑龙江哈尔滨,150028
纸质出版:2011
移动端阅览
彭宇, 雷苗, 郭嘉, 等. 基于先验知识的移动通信话务量预测[J]. 电子学报, 2011,39(1):190-194.
PENG Yu, LEI Miao, GUO Jia, et al. Mobile Communication Traffic Forecasting with Prior Knowledge[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2011, 39(1): 190-194.
本文提出了一种基于先验知识引导的极大重叠离散小波变换的移动通信话务量预测方法.采用傅里叶谱分析作为小波分解子成分先验知识降低小波分解的盲目性.利用具有明确物理意义且更易提取子层的极大重叠离散小波变换对话务量序列进行分解.分解后仍以傅里叶谱先验知识为参考,合并相关子层形成趋势项和周期项两部分,并采用季节性求和自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型对二者分别建模和预测.采用真实数据测试的结果表明:本文方法可实现多步预测,且预测精度优于单纯的季节性ARIMA模型.
This paper proposed a methodology of forecasting for mobile communication traffic with maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) according to priori knowledge.Fourier spectrum was chosen as the priori knowledge to avoid the blindness of wavelet decomposition.Then
MODWT which is easy to extract components with obvious physical meaning was employed to decompose the communication traffic data.Moreover
prior knowledge of fourier spectrum was taken as reference to synthesize relevant sublayers
leading to the trend and seasonal components.Further
seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to model and predict the previous trend and seasonal components
respectively.The results tested with real communication traffic data indicate:the methodology proposed in this paper can realize multistep prediction and the forecasting accuracy is superior to that of seasonal ARIMA models.
0
浏览量
2194
下载量
2
CSCD
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
京公网安备11010802024621