1. 浙大城市学院,浙江,杭州,310015
2. 浙江警察学院,浙江,杭州,310053
3. 浙大城市学院,浙江,杭州,310015
4. 浙江警察学院,浙江,杭州,310053
网络出版:2021-02-25,
纸质出版:2021
移动端阅览
金苍宏, 董腾然, 陈天翼, 等. 融合序列分解与时空卷积的时序预测算法[J]. 电子学报, 2021,49(2):233-238.
JIN Cang-hong, DONG Teng-ran, CHEN Tian-yi, et al. Spatio-Temporal Convolutional Forecasting Based on Time-Series Decomposition Strategy[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2021, 49(2): 233-238.
金苍宏, 董腾然, 陈天翼, 等. 融合序列分解与时空卷积的时序预测算法[J]. 电子学报, 2021,49(2):233-238. DOI: 10.12263/DZXB.20200738.
JIN Cang-hong, DONG Teng-ran, CHEN Tian-yi, et al. Spatio-Temporal Convolutional Forecasting Based on Time-Series Decomposition Strategy[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2021, 49(2): 233-238. DOI: 10.12263/DZXB.20200738.
现有深度学习方法在对时间序列预测时,未充分考虑空间依赖性,且长期预测的准确率也较低.针对此问题,提出一种融合时间序列分解策略和时空卷积神经网络的时序预测模型SDBRNN(Series-Decomposition-Block Recurrent Neural Network).该模型首先学习序列的多周期值并对序列进行最优STL分解;然后结合相邻观察点构造兼具时空数据块;再采用Block-LSTM中的三维卷积模块对时空数据块进行特征提取,让三维块在LSTM细胞中参与状态更新和反向传播,最终实现模型对时空特征的学习.结合多个时空序列测试数据分析,表明该模型在具有空间依赖关系的时序数据集上,比传统的时间卷积模型和循环神经网络具有更好的时空特征提取能力和拟合预测能力,验证了该模型的有效性.
There are various deep learning methods already implemented in time-series forecasting problems
and some of them show better performance and adaptability than the methods based on statistics. However
the spatial dependence implicit in multiple series usually is not considered within the existing time-series forecasting methods
which also results in unsatisfactory performance in long-term forecasting. Thus
we propose a model series-decomposition-block recurrent neural network (SDBRNN)
which fuses time-series decomposition strategy and the spatio-temporal convolutional layer. This model relies on an improved STL decomposition strategy to get optimal series-components and to combine them into spatio-temporal blocks. Then an long-short term memory (LSTM) variant network called Block-LSTM is used to extract spatio-temporal features from blocks and achieve forecasting. Experiments on real-world datasets proved that the model has excellent capabilities of feature extraction and long-term forecasting compared with other methods such as temporal convolutional network and recurrent neural network.
0
浏览量
12
下载量
6
CSCD
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
京公网安备11010802024621