雨衰时间序列的混沌识别与预测

张轶; 翟盛华; 陶海红

doi:10.12263/DZXB.20210030

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雨衰时间序列的混沌识别与预测

学术论文 | 更新时间：2025-12-08

- 雨衰时间序列的混沌识别与预测
- Chaos Identification and Prediction for Rain Attenuation Time Series
- 电子学报 2023年51卷第2期页码：365-371
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中国空间技术研究院西安分院，陕西西安 710100
  2.西安电子科技大学雷达信号处理国家重点实验室，陕西西安 710071
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "张轶男，1986年生，山西太原人.现为中国空间技术研究院西安分院博士后工作站博士后.主要研究方向为自适应抗干扰技术与通信信号处理.E-mail: zhangyi1290@163.com" ]
  [ "翟盛华男，1978年生，陕西宝鸡人.研究员，毕业于法国国立航空航天大学，现任中国空间技术研究院西安分院空间通信与导航技术研究所所长.主要研究方向为空间通信抗干扰与测控技术.E-mail: zsh@cast504.com" ]
  [ "陶海红女，1976年生，安徽亳州人.教授，博士生导师，现在西安电子科技大学雷达信号处理国家重点实验室工作.主要研究方向为雷达信号波形设计、自适应和阵列信号处理.中国电子学会会员编号：E190003895S.E-mail: hhtao@xidian.edu.cn" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(61771015)
- DOI：10.12263/DZXB.20210030
  中图分类号： TN927;
- 收稿：2020-12-28，
  
  修回：2021-08-04，
  
  纸质出版：2023-02-25
- 稿件说明：
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张轶,翟盛华,陶海红.雨衰时间序列的混沌识别与预测[J].电子学报,2023,51(02):365-371.

ZHANG Yi,ZHAI Sheng-hua,TAO Hai-hong.Chaos Identification and Prediction for Rain Attenuation Time Series[J].ACTA ELECTRONICA SINICA,2023,51(02):365-371.
张轶,翟盛华,陶海红.雨衰时间序列的混沌识别与预测[J].电子学报,2023,51(02):365-371. DOI： 10.12263/DZXB.20210030.

ZHANG Yi,ZHAI Sheng-hua,TAO Hai-hong.Chaos Identification and Prediction for Rain Attenuation Time Series[J].ACTA ELECTRONICA SINICA,2023,51(02):365-371. DOI： 10.12263/DZXB.20210030.

摘要

针对传统模型在高频段雨衰预测时存在参数计算复杂、实时性差的问题，设计了一种新的非线性动态预测模型.通过混沌识别证明了雨衰时序具备混沌的动力学特性及采用混沌预测方法的可行性.该方法以雨衰前导数据为训练样本建立非线性自适应滤波器，可忽略不同地理区域降雨分布差异性的影响.仿真结果表明，嵌入维数是影响预测精度的最主要因素，在满足嵌入维数为8、重构时延为3 s、采样间隔为1 s条件时预测相对误差可达0.05以下.同时预测的雨衰时间概率分布与ITU-R模型相比有较好的一致性，验证了所提方法具备参数配置简单、可用度高的优点.

Abstract

To cope of the issue of intricate parameters and low real-time characteristic of traditional models in predicting rain attenuation

a new nonlinear dynamic model is proposed. Through the strict proof for chaotic characteristic of rain attenuation time series

chaos prediction method is deemed to be feasible. By this method

the leader rain attenuation data is obtained as training samples to establish a nonlinear adaptive filter

so as to break through the influence of rainfall distribution from different climatic regions. Simulations show that embedding dimension is the most important factor affecting the prediction accuracy and relative error increases with the increase of embedding dimension. Moreover

the prediction relative error of proposed model is less than 0.05 when embedding dimension is eight

delay is three seconds

and sampling interval is one second. The comparison with experimental results also represents that the proposed method has advantages of real-time forecast and high availability. Significantly

the prediction using the proposed model shows good agreement with ITU-R model in terms of exceedance probability.

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references

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